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Extended Abstract

We have shown the decomposition of H records from WMO/IAEA into their principal components yields factors that are identifiable as northern and southern hemisphere functions of time and allows the user to combine them with loading estimates, in appropriate measure, according to their location on the globe. The application of this approach is more flexible, particularly for those researchers in areas of the globe far from a H sampling station, than the approach promulgated by Weiss and Roether [1980]. These factors can easily be seen as corresponding to the northern and southern hemispheres by the distribution of their factor loadings with respect to latitude (Figs. X and Y). The two factor scores combined account for 90% of the total, zonally averaged, variance in the H data set after normalization. The error in integrated tritium, between our factor analysis and actual data, is mostly in the 3 to 6% range (see Fig. X), although there are some locations with greater error. The utility of this approach lies in the fashion in which these factors can be used.

By locating a position on the maps of and the spatial coefficients (factor loading estimates) are combined with the time series basis functions and (factor scores) to make an estimate of the time history of H delivered from the atmosphere at that location. A comparison of this approach to the individual stations for which actual measurements exist reveals a statistically better fit than the approach of Weiss and Roether [1980] for most of the stations.

In the paper we present, in tabular form, the normalized factor scores for the northern and southern hemispheres by year. We present, as maps, the coefficients necessary to convert the normalized factor scores into H precipitation time series for an arbitrary global location. We also present factor loading estimators for actual station locations for error estimation of our model function. By analyzing monthly data against the factor score approach we estimate the seasonal changes in H delivery. A third table presents this seasonal analysis, including the amplitude and phase shift of the maximum H delivery. In Fig. X we show the global distribution of this phase shift consistent with the interaction between continental re-evaporation and stratospheric supply of H [ Ehhalt, 1971].



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David M. Glover
Wed Aug 13 17:34:37 EDT 1997